Table 3.

GLMMs of reproductive success in Mauritius kestrels. Both models have an identical random effect structure, but differ in their fixed effects. The reproductive success is significantly affected by the timing of breeding (first egg date) and the interaction of December rainfall and timing of breeding. There is no further significant seasonal variation, as indicated by a χ2 test comparing models 1 and 2 (χ2 = 18.92, d.f. = 23, p = 0.71). n = 243 breeding attempts (first clutches of birds breeding in two or more years only).

modelfixed effectsF-valuep-valuerandom effectsAIClog likelihood
1intercept347.14<0.001female identity681.16−335.58
laying date29.45<0.001
December rainfall0.520.472
December rainfall × first egg date4.780.030
2intercept380.76<0.001female identity708.24−326.12
laying date29.14<0.001
December rainfall0.480.488
December rainfall × first egg date4.910.028
breeding season2.850.093
first egg date × breeding season2.640.106