Table 1.

Factors tested and their predicted effect on persistence of U. beldingi. Relative importance values are from the varimp analysis, which was one method used to identify the model that best predicted the observed patterns of extirpation. Negative values indicate that including the factor makes the model worse.

factorpredicted effect on persistencerelative importance
modern temperature of coldest quarterdecrease0.023
historical temperature of coldest quarterdecrease0.023
change in precipitation of driest quarterdecrease0.012
human modificationaincrease0.0096
historical precipitation of wettest quarterdecrease0.0093
modern temperature of warmest quarterdecrease0.0085
historical temperature of warmest quarterdecrease0.0072
modern precipitation of wettest quarterdecrease0.0055
change in temperature of warmest quarterdecrease0.0044
historical precipitation of driest quarterdecrease0.0022
change in temperature of coldest quarterdecrease0.00025
change in precipitation of wettest quarterdecrease−0.000062
modern precipitation of driest quarterdecrease−0.000087
meadow area within 500 m2 (m2)increase−0.00019
private jurisdictiondecrease−0.000397
distance to running water (m)decrease−0.00041
focal meadow area (m3)increase−0.00071
distance to water body (m)decrease−0.00071
  • aHuman-mediated increase in food and/or water availability.